Driver Turnover Falls in First Quarter of 2015

Drop Sets Large TL Turnover Rate at Four-Year Low

Annualized turnover rates at large and small truckload fleets each fell 12 percentage points in the first quarter of the year, according to American Trucking Associations’ Chief Economist Bob Costello.

“Clearly, the decline in driver turnover in the first quarter was significant,” Costello said, “but what is less clear is why it dropped so much and whether turnover will continue to remain low.”

In the first quarter, annualized turnover at truckload fleets with more than $30 million in revenue fell to 84%, the lowest it has been since the second quarter of 2011 and marks the first time the rate fell below 90% since 2011. For fleets with less than $30 million revenue, the turnover rate dipped to 83%.

“Drivers continue to be in high demand, so we still see the risks posed to the economy and our industry by the shortage of drivers,” Costello said. “The drop in turnover was likely, at least partially, connected to a temporary slowdown in freight movements in the quarter, as well as improved retention efforts of fleets across the board. But I would not be surprised if turnover edges higher in the quarters ahead.”

Women In Trucking Goes to the White House!

The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) represents 21 economies joined together to promote sustainable economic growth and prosperity in the region. The United States Department of Transportation found the inclusion of women in transportation careers in this area to be dismal and in need of change.

In 2012 the Women in Transportation (WiT) initiative was launched to enhance the participation of women in related careers in the region. The purpose is two fold: to develop a framework of data to benchmark conditions for women in this area and to obtain best practices to increase the percentage of women in transportation careers.

Recently, Women In Trucking Association (WIT) President/CEO Ellen Voie was invited to the White House to serve on a panel and share some WIT activities and successes with stakeholders from other modes of transportation.

The panelists were invited to participate by Susan Kurland, Assistant Secretary at the U.S. Department of Transportation. Voie, along with representatives from the World Bank, University of Memphis School of Engineering, Gulfstream and C12 Aviation, talked about initiatives designed to bring more women into transportation related careers.

“I was honored to be a part of this international program and to work with so many notable women in public and private sector leadership roles,” said Voie. “The highlight of my day was the round of applause WIT received when I told them about the Girl Scout Transportation Patch program we created last year.”

Kurland thanked the speakers, “Your insights brought depth to the discussion and your energy brought life to the room. Increasing women’s participation in the transportation sector is a truly important issue – and the work you all are doing are the concrete steps towards success. I look forward to your continued engagement in our initiative as we continue to refine the WiT Framework and craft our implementation plan.”

ATA Releases U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2026

 A new report released today by American Trucking Associations projects freight volumes will increase by nearly 29% over the next 11 years.

“The outlook for all modes of freight transportation remains bright,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello in releasing U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2026. “Continued population growth, expansion of the energy sector and foreign trade will boost trucking, intermodal rail and pipeline shipments in particular.”

Forecast, a collaboration between ATA and IHS Global Insight, projects a 28.6% increase in freight tonnage and an increase in freight revenues of 74.5% to $1.52 trillion in 2026.

“Forecast is a valuable resource for executives and decision makers in both the private and public sector,” ATA President and CEO Bill Graves said. “Knowing where the industry and economy is headed can help shippers and fleets make key business decisions and instruct lawmakers and regulators on the best policies to move our economy forward.”

For the first time, this year’s Forecast includes near-term projections for 2015 and 2016 and estimates for changes in the size of the Class 8 truck fleet.

Among Forecast’s Findings

Trucking will still be the dominant mode of freight transportation, although the share of tonnage it hauls dips slightly. Even though truck tonnage grows over the forecast period, trucking’s share will dip from 68.8% in 2014 to 64.6% in 2026.

Due to tremendous growth in energy production in the US, pipelines will benefit more than other modes. Between 2015 and 2026, pipeline volumes will increase an average of 10.6% a year and their share of freight will increase from 10.8% in 2015 to 18.1% in 2026.

While railroads’ share of freight tonnage will drift down from 14.2% in 2015 to 12.3% in 2026, intermodal freight will be the second fastest growing mode at 4.5% annually through 2021 and increase 5.3% per year thereafter.